The evidence is stronger than you might expect
Two studies are worth knowing in detail, because they bracket the market nicely: one at an elite US university, one in public secondary schools in Nigeria.
At Harvard, physicists built a custom GPT-based tutor for an introductory physics course and ran a crossover experiment with 194 undergraduates in fall 2023. Students who worked through a lesson with the AI tutor at home showed learning gains roughly double those of students in an expertly taught active-learning class, and they reported feeling more engaged. Worth stressing: the comparison class was not a boring lecture. It was a research-refined course the university considers one of its best-taught.
The World Bank result is arguably more striking because of its setting. In a six-week after-school pilot in Nigerian public schools during June and July 2024, first-year senior secondary students used Microsoft Copilot as an English tutor with teacher support. The evaluation found learning gains of about 0.3 standard deviations, equivalent to nearly two years of typical schooling, and the program outperformed 80% of education interventions previously tested in developing countries. Girls, who started behind, gained the most. Every additional session attended added measurable benefit.
Both studies come with caveats a serious buyer should keep in mind. They were short. They measured first exposure to material, not long-term retention. And both tutors were heavily shaped by educators, not raw chatbots dropped into a classroom. But as evidence goes, education technology has rarely had it this good, and the research base predates the current generation of models.
Demand is not hypothetical either. In a Pew Research Center survey of 1,391 US teens conducted in autumn 2024, 26% said they used ChatGPT for schoolwork, double the share from 2023. Students are not waiting for the market to mature.